Y2K Ken Raggios' newsletter
"Tyler Nally" (tnally@iquest.net)
Mon, 8 Mar 1999 14:18:29 -0500
Greetings Saints in Jesus name!
Here's the latest from Ken Raggio .... on the upcoming
Y2K event which commences in the not too distant future.
Bro Tyler
--
Bro Tyler Nally
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"...prefer to hear educated blessings preach than ignorant blessing!"
- Bro Robert Jay Brown III
======================================================================
This and many other provocative prophecy articles are at
http://www.kenraggio.com
Y2K - No guarantees that electricity will survive
Facts defy compliance statements
By Ken Raggio
I have been a Y2K alarmist for one full year now. I have traveled the gamut
from genuine panic to cautious optimism. Some may not believe it, but I
really don't enjoy contemplating the risks and dangers I believe are headed
our way. If I could, I would completely dismiss myself from this issue and
go on about my other business. Unfortunately, it seems, the Y2K dilemma
simply won't go away.
You may have heard or read any number of news items that have circulated in
the mainstream media in recent weeks confidently assuring us, in the words
of Peter de Jager, that "we have broken the back of Y2K." I really wish I
could believe him, but I don't for even one second.
Reuters News reported on March 1, "Americans should prepare for the year
2000 computer bug like they would a hurricane, by stocking up on canned
food and bottled water in case vital services are cut off, senators leading
a congressional study of the problem said Sunday. Global trade could also
be disrupted because major U.S. trading partners, including Japan and oil
producers Venezuela and Saudi Arabia, may not be able to address the
computer glitch in time, Utah Republican Sen. Robert Bennett and
Connecticut Democratic Sen. Christopher Dodd said. "
Take the electrical industry for example. Two of the foremost experts in
the electrical industry are Dick Mills and Rick Cowles. Both are veteran
programmers and consultants to the giant power companies. Both are regular
contributors to John Westergaard's Y2K website. Westergaard is the guy who
originally trumpeted the Y2K alarm to Senator Patrick Moynihan who in turn
passed the alarm on to Bill Clinton back in early 97. Mills and Cowles are
as knowledgeable as anybody in the industry about the state of Y2K
readiness.
Dick Mills has a reference article online called "Powerful
Prognostications". In it, he plainly says, "Electricity customers are
advised to make contingency plans for lack of power. Both short-term
blackout, and LONGER-TERM power-shortage scenarios should be considered."
Mills is concrete in his cautions. You'd better brace yourself for
significant power outages. Don't believe CEOs and public relations
personnel ditto heads who puppet their "Y2K ready" statements.
Rick Cowles participated in a 10,000 word interview with CBN News recently.
He agreed with the following statement about the real risk of electrical
failure: "it doesn't seem likely to me that the entire grid will go down,
but instead that we're definitely going to be looking at various types of
shortages of power, whether it's rolling blackouts or brownouts throughout
regions and areas."
Cowles said, "I think, generically speaking, there's going to be problems
throughout the year 2000. I think there's particularly capacity issues
coming into the summer months. There's going to be significant issues with
capacity problems. I've said this to you and a million other people: this
isn't going to be a big bang on 1-1-2000." He said the most serious threat
of regional electrical failures would most likely come "two weeks after
1-1-2000, and then you'll see a slow recovery for 15 or 30 days to some
kind of equilibrium where you've at least got some degree of reliability
just about everywhere." That statement suggests a 15-30 day period with no
degree of reliability. Afterward, "you're going to see isolated dark spots
here and there. You're going to see brown spots here and there. But you're
going to see more light spots than brown or black spots."
Meanwhile, electric company executives continue to tell us that ALL IS WELL
and we have nothing to worry about. Why is there a disparity between what
the CEOs say and the industry's technical experts?
Cowles explained why corporate executives are refusing to admit the
electric companies' actual state of readiness. It has everything to do with
STOCK PRICES. "If an industry trade association- and I'm talking any
industry now, not just the electric industry- comes out and says, "Boy, our
industry is really behind on this. We're going to have a heck of a time
making this. We don't know if we're going to be able to provide our
product, or if we're going to be at 50% capacity, or what, after 1/1/2000
because we're finding this problem, that problem, and the other problem."
What's going to happen in the stock market the next day, generically, to
those industry's stocks? They're going to tank. And that's certainly a
significant concern."
Dick Mills argues that unless and until all the Y2K remediation has been
fully tested, there can be no guarantees. "Anything not tested won't run",
is the programmer's unwritten creed. Statements like, "we expect to be
compliant by July" hold almost no value in the real world.
The Senate Y2K Committee report on March 2 said, "Of greatest concern, are
approximately 1,000 small, rural electric utilities that may not have the
resources to devote to Y2K compliance."
A Department of Agriculture report stated that one of the greatest risks to
the agricultural industry is the potential failure of Rural Electric
Association (and other rural electric companies) services.
An Army programmer commented to me recently, "It doesn't matter how
compliant the power plants are if the phones don't work. They won't be able
to communicate for the purpose of managing the grid."
Rick Cowles said, "Where I am, here in New Jersey, we're 60% dependent on
nuclear power. If the NRC takes the nukes off the line, we're certainly
going to be hurting." And the likelihood of the nukes shutting down?
Perhaps the most significant news was reported by WorldNewsDaily on January
22, 1999, "Concern over potential safety hazards related to the Y2K bug
prompted the Nuclear Regulatory Commission to announce that all nuclear
power plant operators would be required to offer written confirmation that
they had a program under way to deal with potential Y2K problems. The
requirement specifies that nuclear power plants must be "Y2K ready no later
than July 1, 1999." Nuclear plants reportedly require up to four months to
shut down, suggesting that nuclear shutdowns could begin as early as this
summer if plants cannot demonstrate Y2K readiness. The Nuclear Information
and Resource Service has filed a petition with the Nuclear Regulatory
Commission calling for all nuclear plants that are not Y2K compliant to be
shut down no later than December 1, 1999.
A controversial article written by David M. Bresnahan of WorldNetDaily on
January 11 reported that an officer from the National Guard Bureau in
Washington revealed that "the National Guard is planning COMEX/MOBEX, an
exercise to practice a full mobilization of all 480,000 members of the
National Guard. It will take place May 1 without the use of phones, tele
vision, or radio. The exercise is planned to prepare for a possible
mobilization in the event computer failures from the Y2K bug cause major
disruptions of power, telecommunications, transportation and banking. "
"The latest plan I've heard," said another Guard official, "is to break the
power grid into several hundred little grids. Right now it's one major grid
broken into four subgrids. If they don't break it into several hundred
little grids, in conjunction with the phone system not working properly,
they won't get their feedback mechanism right and they'll burn up the
lines."
Why is the National Guard and FEMA activating nearly A HALF-MILLION
SOLDIERS to prepare for a nationwide blackout, if there really is no
legitimate risk?
That facts speak louder than the compliance statements. Fact is, nobody can
guarantee that trains will deliver coal. Fact is, nobody can guarantee that
gas and oil will be available for electric plants, trains or even the
public. Fact is, nobody can guarantee that nuclear plants won't be taken
offline. Fact is, these are all VERY HIGH RISKS!
What does that mean to you and me? It is imperative that we face the high
probability of at least large-scale, short-term blackouts. No one in
American can guarantee us that there will not be massive blackouts lasting
for several days. It is a stark reality. If we fail to acknowledge that
fact, and fail to prepare accordingly, it's going to be VERY COLD and VERY
DARK in ten months. Too many people in high places are leaking genuinely
dreadful warnings.
What is a reasonable contingency plan for a typical family? It's hard to
say exactly, but you must take into considerations the basic needs of your
household.
Will you have adequate heating if you have no electricity for 7-10 days in
your region? Will your house freeze? Will your water pipes burst? Will your
children be able to stay warm? Will you be able to cook? Will you have
adequate food stored away? These are not irrational concerns. Sitting in a
freezing house, in a frozen community, for nine days could prove to be much
more than you and your family are capable of enduring.
Wood stoves and kerosene heaters are going to be in extremely short supply
by the time most folks decide they had better get prepared. Food, water,
heat and cooking are four things you can't afford to be without. Now is the
time to act.
If you have not yet seriously considered a Y2K survival plan, please visit
my website and check out the several articles on Y2K at
http://www.kenraggio.com If you need survival tips, s
If you can't understand why Y2K is an issue for Bible Prophecy, read the
online articles "Is Y2K the fall of Babylon?" and "Lucifer will have Chaos
before God intervenes" at my website.
God bless you all,
Ken Raggio
3/4/99
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